Real-world evidence with a retrospective cohort of 15,968 Andalusian COVID-19 hospitalized patients suggests 21 new effective treatments and one drug that increases death risk (preprint)

Despite the extensive vaccination campaigns in many countries, COVID-19 is still a major worldwide health problem because of its associated morbidity and mortality. Therefore, finding efficient treatments as fast as possible is a pressing need. Drug repurposing constitutes a convenient alternative when the need for new drugs in an unexpected medical scenario is urgent, as is the case with COVID-19. Using data from a central registry of electronic health records (the Andalusian Population Health Database, BPS), the effect of prior consumption of drugs for other indications previous to the hospitalization with respect to patient survival was studied on a retrospective cohort of 15,968 individuals, comprising all COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Andalusia between January and November 2020. Covariate-adjusted hazard ratios and analysis of lymphocyte progression curves support a significant association between consumption of 21 different drugs and better patient survival. Contrarily, one drug, furosemide, displayed a significant increase in patient mortality.

Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and mutations on patient survival (preprint)

After more than two years of COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 still remains a global public health problem. Successive waves of infection have produced new SARS-CoV-2 variants with new mutations whose impact on COVID-19 severity and patient survival is uncertain. A total of 764 SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced from COVID-19 patients, hospitalized from 19th February 2020 to 30st April 2021, along with their clinical data, were used for survival analysis. A significant association of B.1.1.7, the alpha lineage, with patient mortality (Log Hazard ratio LHR=0.51, C.I.=[0.14,0.88]) was found upon adjustment by all the covariates known to affect COVID-19 prognosis. Moreover, survival analysis of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome rendered 27 of them significantly associated with higher mortality of patients. Most of these mutations were located in the S, ORF8 and N proteins. This study illustrates how a combination of genomic and clinical data provide solid evidence on the impact of viral lineage on patient survival.

Impact of COVID-19 on the health of the general and more vulnerable population and its determinants: Health care and social survey-ESSOC, study protocol (preprint)

This manuscript describes the rationale and protocol of a real-world data (RWD) study entitled Health Care and Social Survey (ESSOC, Encuesta Sanitaria y Social). The study’s objective is to determine the magnitude, characteristics, and evolution of the COVID-19 impact on overall health as well as the socioeconomic, psychosocial, behavioural, occupational, environmental, and clinical determinants of both the general and more vulnerable population. The study integrates observational data collected through a survey using a probabilistic, overlapping panel design, and data from clinical, epidemiological, demographic, and environmental registries. The data will be analysed using advanced statistical, sampling, and machine learning techniques. The study is based on several measurements obtained from three random samples of the Andalusian (Spain) population: general population aged 16 years and over, residents of disadvantaged areas, and people over the age of 55. Given the current characteristics of this pandemic and its future repercussions, this project will generate relevant information on a regular basis, commencing from the beginning of the State of Alarm. It will also establish institutional alliances of great social value, explore and apply powerful and novel methodologies, and produce large, integrated, high-quality and open-access databases. The information described here will be vital for health systems in order to design tailor-made interventions aimed at improving the health care, health, and quality of life of the populations most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Real world evidence of calcifediol use and mortality rate of COVID-19 hospitalized in a large cohort of 16,401 Andalusian patients (preprint)

Background: COVID-19 is a major worldwide health problem because of acute respiratory distress syndrome, and mortality. Several lines of evidence have suggested a relationship between the vitamin D endocrine system and severity of COVID-19. Methods: We present a retrospective survival study that includes all Andalusian patients hospitalized between January and November 2020 because of COVID-19 infection. Based on a central registry of electronic health records (the Andalusian Population Health Database, BPS), prescription of vitamin D or its metabolites within 15-30 days before hospitalization were recorded. The effect of treatment with vitamin D metabolites for other indication previous to the hospitalization was studied with respect to patient survival by means of Kaplan-Meyer survival curves and Log Hazard Ratios, using a propensity score to compensate the disbalance of compared classes and the confounding factors. The availability of detailed patient data in the BPS allowed to obtain Real-World Evidence (RWE) of the effects of prior use of vitamin D or its metabolites on the mortality due to COVID-19 infection. Findings: A retrospective cohort of 16.401patients was extracted from the BPS, which includes all the patients hospitalized with COVID-19 diagnosis between January and November 2020 in Andalusia, one of the largest regions in Europe with the size of an average median country. A total of 358 patients were found with cholecalciferol, and 193 with calcifediol, prescriptions 15 days before hospitalization. For a period extended to 30 days before hospitalization, the numbers increase to 416 and 210 and, respectively. Kaplan-Meyer survival curves and hazard ratios support an association between consumption of these metabolites and patient survival. Such association was stronger in calcifediol (Log Hazard Ratio, LHR = -1.27{+/-}0.32) than in cholecalciferol (LHR= -0.56{+/-}0.15), when prescribed 15 days before hospitalization This effect decreases when a larger 30 days period is considered (calcifediol LHR= -1.01{+/-}0.27 and cholecalciferol LHR= -0.27{+/-}0.12), suggesting that the closer was the treatment to the hospitalization the stronger the association. Conclusions: A significant reduction in mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 is associated with the prescription of vitamin D, especially calcifediol, within 15-30 days prior to hospitalization.